This is the fifth part of a series “Everything You Need To Know About Bitcoin Halving”. To read the forth part, click here.

There is a lot of speculation among the trading community about the impact of the upcoming halving event on Bitcoin’s price. However, before we dive into the future, let us first examine the past.

How did the halving impact Bitcoin’s price in the past?

The Bitcoin halving has been widely linked as one of the driving factors behind previous Bitcoin’s bull-runs. Although, as we will examine, Bitcoin’s momentum took some time to develop. We will analyze the past performance of Bitcoin before and after each of the previous halving events.

The First Bitcoin Halving

The month prior to the first halving, Bitcoin marked a 15.93% price increase. When the first halving commenced on the 28 November 2012, Bitcoin recorded a negligible gain of 1.75% by the end of that day. However, the following month after the halving, Bitcoin appreciated by 7.86%, and from that day on, Bitcoin started its five-month bull-run. After the third month since the halving commenced, Bitcoin recorded a 174.39% gain, and by the end of the sixth month, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed from $12.22 to $125.92, recording a 930.40% price appreciation.

The impact of the First halving on Bitcoin's price

The Second Bitcoin Halving

The second Bitcoin halving told a different story. One month prior to the halving event, Bitcoin appreciated by 12.65%. However, the month following the event initiation, Bitcoin experienced a loss of -10.04%. Furthermore, even after three months had passed after the event, Bitcoin failed to recover, and its price continued to decrease by -5.36%. The consolidation phase slowly started to shift as time passed. By the end of the sixth month since the initial launch of the second halving, Bitcoin’s monthly performance turned back to green numbers and gained 38.35% during that time.

The impact of the Second halving on Bitcoin's price

If we take a look at the bigger picture, it’s important to note that since the commencement of the first halving in 2012 to Bitcoin’s all-time-high (ATH) price point during the 2013 bull market, it took Bitcoin a whole year (369 days) to record a 9,417% gain. On the other hand, since the commencement of the second halving event in 2016 to the highest price point of BTC during the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin required 526 days to achieve a “mere” 2,936% price increase.

Price momentum after both Bitcoin halving events

Where exactly Bitcoin’s price ends up after the third halving in May 2020 is uncertain. One thing is for sure, however: its trend will need some time to develop. I believe it will take at least two years to show distinct momentum.

This latency, however, could present a problem for some investors. As a number of instances in the past have shown, the crypto investing community tends to respond impatiently in regard to major events. A prime example is the ICE Bakkt futures launch on 23 September of 2019. After several delays and 13 months of waiting, the Intercontinental Exchange gained approval from the regulators to introduce Bitcoin futures through its Bakkt platform. The investing public was eager for it to finally initiate, but only one day after the launch, Bitcoin’s price decreased by more than 12%, causing some investors to lose faith regarding the future of the Bitcoin futures initiative. It is essential to remember that after the halving event, Bitcoin will require some time to establish a clear direction. As a result, the best advice is not to act prematurely.

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