November was a very volatile month due to FTX/Alameda collapse and the consequences that followed.
FTX/Alameda fraud brought down 134 companies in its portfolio.
Besides FTX/Alameda portfolio companies some of the well-known crypto players also announced bankruptcy (Voyager, BlockFi) later in the month.
Bitcoin’s price was on a solid positive trend in November. The price of Bitcoin crossed the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and tested the 100-day EMA. A new bear market rally seemed to be on the horizon, but FTX/Alameda fraud stopped the short-term positive trend right at the 100-day EMA.
We’ve repeatedly mentioned that a 100-day EMA (white – currently at $19k) is crucial resistance. Before the last drop, its level was tested at $21k. The price was again denied, which confirmed a reliable trendsetter for Bitcoin in the previous months.
Once all information about FTX/Alameda fraud was disclosed to the public, the price of Bitcoin collapsed below a crucial support at $18k, more precisely to the $15-16k level. With that, a new trend was established after a long consolidation period (June-November). Later in November, the price of Bitcoin stabilized at $16-17.5k, which is typical price consolidation before continuing the existing trend.
The chart shows more considerable support at a $12-13k level (red color). If this level doesn’t hold, the next support is at $10k (green color).
In November Broader crypto index MVIS 100 noticed another negative month with a 15.45% decline. On a year to date, the time frame index return is deep in red at -58.5%.
We still recommend investors to stay defensive and wait for more signs that we reached the bottom or at least a period of accumulation. Until Bitcoin price exceeds long-term moving averages (red and white in the chart) and those averages start turning the curve upside, there is no favorable risk/reward ratio.
Our market model is on short-term Neutral while on long-term time frame (still) Negative.
DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute a marketing message, an investment survey, an investment recommendation, or investment advice. The article was prepared exclusively for a better understanding of market dynamics.
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