The market trend currently paused

TL;DR:

  • Our market view:
    • Short-term: Neutral
    • Long-term: Negative
  • Historically, February is a favorable month for Bitcoin, and this year was positive too. On the other hand, March has been negative for most of the past years.

Market overview

In the past few months, the markets’ key drivers were macro, more exactly central banks, interest rates, Covid 19, and inflation. In early February, the macro was the main topic, but in the second part of the month, the attention of all market participants have moved to the Russian – Ukrainian crisis. On Friday 24th, when Russia invaded Ukraine was bloody for all the markets. All the information was priced in the markets quickly. All risk assets have recovered in the several subsequent sessions. However, Russia provides Europe with 60% of its gas needs, and Ukraine is a leading exporter of purified neon gas necessary for lasers that design chips. The consequence of supply chain disruptions caused by war likely has not been priced in.

For crypto markets, February was a choppy month. With massive pumps and dumps, the price fluctuated between $33 and $45k. One news that gained much attention was that a couple was arrested for alleged money laundering of $4.5 billion in Bitcoin in the US. According to the media, this money was linked to the Bitfinex hack back in 2016.

Crypto market performance (2022-02)

Long term view is still negative until Bitcoin price stays below crucial (weekly) trendlines.

In the short term, the crypto market price trend is on pause. Our market view is neutral.

Crypto market view (2022-02)

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DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute a marketing message, an investment survey, an investment recommendation, or investment advice. The article was prepared exclusively for a better understanding of market dynamics.